The Climate Continues to Change… for the Worse

By Dave Trecker

Last year was the hottest on record and 2025 looks to be no better as we brace for even higher temperatures. The climate is changing. Whether you are a believer or not, whether you are a Republican or Democrat, whether you love or hate fossil fuels – none of that matters. The planet will continue to warm for the foreseeable future.

Last year we approached the Armageddon threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the planet is said to undergo irreversible damage (Paris Accords).

The global average in October 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That signals real trouble.

What does the future hold in store? Nothing good. The Climate Action Tracker says the current trajectory, unless radically altered, will lead to increases of 2.5-2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.

There are at least three bogeymen responsible – increasing energy demand, population growth and China. Little can be done about any of the three. The sad fact is that all forms of energy –oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear and hydroelectric – will be needed to supply the planet’s energy needs. We can’t get there without fossil fuels.

Let’s look at some recent developments:

• Petroleum production continues to surge. Global oil and gas growth is slowing but shows no signs of decline. A recent headline read: “OPEC Trims Forecast for Oil Demand.” Turns out growth in demand is predicted to drop from 1.61 million barrels a day in 2024 to 1.45 in 2025. That’s growth, mind you. As a footnote, Exxon Mobil plans to double its production in the Permian Basin by 2030.
• Electric vehicle sales have tanked in the U.S. as people worry about cost, safety and recharging inconvenience. It doesn’t help that EV batteries don’t do well in cold weather and over half of the country has cold weather. Locally, Hertz has unloaded much of its rental EV fleet. And government subsidies for EVs are on their political deathbed. But our gas guzzlers, still very much the transportation standard, will continue to spew out pollution.
• Artificial intelligence, which is coming on like gangbusters, will require massive amounts of power. Energy expert Ali Azad says data centers alone will boost power consumption by at least 30% by 2030. And population growth, even though it’s slowing, will add to energy requirements. Some of that energy will come from oil and gas.
• To make matters worse, the International Energy Agency reports that coal mining is increasing. Global production was up 2% last year to a record 8.8 billion metric tons. Coal combustion is known to generate huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, and many utility plants throughout the world still use coal.
• The U.S., going against the tide, has reduced its carbon emissions dramatically over the last 15 years, primarily by replacing coal with natural gas. That has resulted in a drop of 32% in carbon output. It sounds like a big deal, but the overall effect is pretty small.
• China overwhelms what the rest of the world is doing. By far the worst polluter, China is adding coal plants at a rapid pace to ensure its economic growth. It accounts for 53% of overall coal usage. Last year Global Energy Monitor reported China had over 300 new coal plants in the works, enough to keep carbon emissions soaring for the foreseeable future.

The problems are real and they’re not going away. More worrisome, people don’t care as much as they used to. Last year, polls showed that only 2% of voters said that climate change was a major concern. Soaring prices, crushing insurance costs, dangerous overseas wars, new viruses. That’s what people are worried about.

Climate change is way down the list.

Dr. Trecker is a chemist and retired Pfizer executive living in Naples.