Page 47 - April 2016 Life In Naples Magazine
P. 47
“Current proven have, the world will have to burn carbon
reserves contain at a rate that will damage our planet’s
almost 2 trillion ecosystem so much that economic
barrels worth of oil growth itself (and therefore, the future
need for oil) will be compromised.
which represents a
And yet, oil executives believe they
”53-year supply are sensibly pursuing a sound asset-
ready to tap. acquisition strategy. Oil companies
have profited in the past by finding new
physicians and was an indisputable source of authority. “It reserves. That fact is true. But the new
is I, and I alone, who has revealed the true path of medicine,” information that we have more than enough oil is a fact not
Galen wrote with his usual lack of modesty. Obviously, used because it runs counter to the goals of oil executives.
he was untroubled by doubt.
Again, there is a confirmational bias that finding reserves
Each medical outcome confirmed that Galen was creates value and—and that ignores the fact that we have
right, no matter how equivocal the evidence might look too many reserves already and need new forms of energy
to someone more objective than the master. “All who drink production.
of this treatment recover in a short time, except those whom it
does not help, who all die. It is obvious, therefore, that it only Let’s return to the world of medicine. Even when cures are
fails in incurable cases.” found, changing behavior is difficult.
Fast forward to today’s evidenced-based medicine, Consider the discovery of Vitamin C for the treatment or
focused on what is important to the patient. Today’s scurvy. Calling Englishmen “limeys” has at its root the fact that
physicians and non-physician providers ideally listen Great Britain had at one time the greatest navy in the world.
more than they talk, use proven therapies based on However, in the late 1700s the British navy had its own plague,
extensive clinical studies, and comfort when cure is called scurvy.
not possible.
After sailors had been on board for months, their cuts
We are often tempted to make the facts fit our would not heal, their teeth loosened, they bruised easily and
conclusions. But with so much more transparency in the eventually they had a high mortality.They suffered from scurvy.
digital age, everyone has access to better information that Interestingly, as soon as they hit land and had a regular diet,
can improve health. the signs of disease quickly cleared.
Confirmational bias extends across many disciplines. Dr. James Lind, a British ship’s doctor, took twelve sailors
Financial markets with booms and busts are perfect suffering from scurvy and divided them into pairs giving each
examples of smart folks with a selfish point of view pair a different treatment: vinegar, cider, sulfuric acid, seawater,
misrepresenting “facts” to further their own interests. bark paste, and citrus fruit.
In the December, 2016 Harvard Business Review is You know the results.The citrus fruit containing Vitamin C
an article entitled “The Overvaluation Trap.” It tells the was the cure. Limes (which travel well) were added to the diet
story of the $571 billion that big oil has poured into of the seamen. Lager and lime became a popular drink. But it
prospecting for new reserves. took another few decades to get the entire navy on board. So
even when you have the right answer, making change can be
Current proven reserves contain almost two trillion difficult.
barrels worth of oil which represents a 53-year supply
ready to tap.The upsetting aspect of this continued search Believing that things will get better and ignoring reality
and use of oil: If companies are to sell what they already are the behaviors of confirmational bias. Certainly we desire
optimistic forecasts and enjoy being around positive, engaged,
and satisfied friends, colleagues and family members.
But we need to be realistic with our assessments and avoid
confirmational bias if we want to succeed as individuals or as
a society.
Life in Naples | April 2016 47
