Page 46 - April 2016 Life In Naples Magazine
P. 46
DOCTOR’S CORNER
BIASCONFIRMATIONAL
by Allen Weiss, MD, MBA, FACP, FACR of Psychology and Political Science, and Dan Gardner, a
President and CEO, NCH Healthcare System journalist and author of Risk: The Science and Politics of
Fear and Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and
W e all like to believe that whatever we Foxes Know Best.
believe is true.
That way, our knowledge leads us to Let’s start with a few historical medical examples of
behaviors which are helpful and positive “confirmational bias.” Did blood-letting help or harm
for ourselves and the societies around us. Presidents George Washington and Abraham Lincoln?
But sometimes, we have the disquieting experience Sadly, when George Washington fell ill in 1799 his
of objectively examining our knowledge and discovering esteemed physicians bled him relentlessly, dosed him with
it was our preconceived notions which encouraged us mercury to cause diarrhea, induced vomiting, and raised
to identify “facts” to support our conclusion—even blood-filled blisters, according to historical accounts. At
though on closer examination, we find we have erred the time, I’m sure the conclusion was the President was
in many ways. just too sick for the treatment to overcome the illness.
The subject of a recent popular book in the business
community is understanding why we made decisions The second century physician Galen influenced the
which affect the future with real consequences, and most development of various scientific disciplines, including
importantly, what was the thought process behind these anatomy, physiology, pathology, pharmacology, and
“rational” actions. neurology, as well as philosophy, and logic. He was not
The book is titled Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock, a noted for his modesty. Galen influenced generations of
University of Pennsylvania and Wharton School Professor
46 Life in Naples | April 2016
