Page 70 - LIN_February 2025_web-file

Technically Speaking

The Climate

Continues Continues
to Change… for the Worse
…
Change

to

by Dave Trecker

ast year was the hottest on record and 2025 looks to be • • Artificial intelligence, which is coming on like gangbusters,
no better as we brace for even higher temperatures. The will require massive amounts of power. Energy expert Ali Azad
L climate is changing. Whether you are a believer or not, says data centers alone will boost power consumption by at least
whether you are a Republican or Democrat, whether you love or 30% by 2030. And population growth, even though it’s slowing,
hate fossil fuels – none of that matters. The planet will continue to will add to energy requirements. Some of that energy will come
warm for the foreseeable future. from oil and gas.
Last year we approached the Armageddon threshold of 1.5 • • To make matters worse, the International Energy Agency
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the reports that coal mining is increasing. Global production was up
planet is said to undergo irreversible damage (Paris Accords). 2% last year to a record 8.8 billion metric tons. Coal combustion is
The global average in October 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius above known to generate huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane,
pre-industrial levels. That signals real trouble. and many utility plants throughout the world still use coal.
What does the future hold in store? Nothing good. The • • The U.S., going against the tide, has reduced its carbon
Climate Action Tracker says the current trajectory, unless radically emissions dramatically over the last 15 years, primarily by replacing
altered, will lead to increases of 2.5-2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100. coal with natural gas. That has resulted in a drop of 32% in carbon
There are at least three bogeymen responsible – increasing output. It sounds like a big deal, but the overall effect is pretty
energy demand, population growth and China. Little can be done small.
about any of the three. The sad fact is that all forms of energy – • • China overwhelms what the rest of the world is doing. By
oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear and hydroelectric – will far the worst polluter, China is adding coal plants at a rapid pace
be needed to supply the planet’s energy needs. We can’t get there to ensure its economic growth. It accounts for 53% of overall coal
without fossil fuels. usage. Last year Global Energy Monitor reported China had over
Let’s look at some recent developments: 300 new coal plants in the works, enough to keep carbon emissions
• • Petroleum production continues to surge. Global oil and gas soaring for the foreseeable future.
growth is slowing but shows no signs of decline. A recent headline The problems are real and they’re not going away. More
read: “OPEC Trims Forecast for Oil Demand.” Turns out growth worrisome, people don’t care as much as they used to. Last year,
in demand is predicted to drop from 1.61 million barrels a day polls showed that only 2% of voters said that climate change was a
in 2024 to 1.45 in 2025. That’s growth, mind you. As a footnote, major concern. Soaring prices, crushing insurance costs, dangerous
Exxon Mobil plans to double its production in the Permian Basin overseas wars, new viruses. That’s what people are worried about.
by 2030. Climate change is way down the list.
• • Electric vehicle sales have tanked in the U.S. as people worry Dr. Trecker is a chemist and retired Pfizer executive living in Naples.
about cost, safety and recharging inconvenience. It doesn’t help
that EV batteries don’t do well in cold weather and over half of
the country has cold weather. Locally, Hertz has unloaded much
of its rental EV fleet. And government subsidies for EVs are on
their political deathbed. But our gas guzzlers, still very much the
transportation standard, will continue to spew out pollution.

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